Please note that you can leave a comment on any of our posts at our Facebook page.  Subscribers can also comment at length at our Angel's Corner Forum.

Our Angel's Corner archive is here.

ALERT:  SUBSCRIPTION DRIVE SUSPENDED

We are suspending our subscription drive after five days, the first time we've ever done that at Urgent Agenda.  No, it isn't that we're doing badly.  In fact, the drive came alive yesterday.   But as I watch the natural disasters that have hit our country unfold, I just feel this isn't the time to ask people for subscriptions. 

These subscription drives are pre-planned.  We could not have anticipated the events the nation is experiencing.  I feel uncomfortable continuing our campaign at this time.

We'll revisit subscriptions later.  Providence willing, we'll celebrate our 10th anniversary in January. We'll probably have a drive to commemorate the event. 

For those who subscribed or donated this past week, I thank you.  You're troopers, and you keep us going. 

SEPTEMBER 9,  2017

SHORT TAKES ON THE DRIFTING WRECKAGE – AT 11:55 P.M. ET: 

THE NEW NEWS INDUSTRY – FROM THE WASHINGTON EXAMINER:   Over just the last year, Americans have radically changed their media consuming habits, abandoning TV news in favor of online sources, a trend that could have the internet as the nation's No. 1 news provider in a year.  The latest Pew Research Center review of news consumption that showed a 19-point gap between TV news and online shrunk to just 7 points in the last year. Those "often" getting news from TV dropped from 57 percent last year to 50 percent this year, while online grew from 38 percent to 43 percent."  The decline in television news use occurs across all three types of TV news asked about in the survey – local, network and cable – but is greatest for local television news," said Pew.  TV is already losing to online for everybody younger than 50.  Gee, I wonder if it has anything to do with the perception that TV news is heavily slanted in one direction.  Nah, that couldn't be.

THE NEW FAD – FROM THE WASHINGTON EXAMINER:   Each morning in Paris, Michael (who requested a pseudonym because of privacy concerns), his wife and their 10-year-old son would stroll out of the Hotel George V, where suites can go for $5,000 a night, to meet their personal security detail: two strapping ex-military men who cost $2,000 a day.  “I’m not a worrywart,” said the 38-year-old, who runs a lending fund. “But once you start having kids, [you want] peace of mind against terrorism.”  Wealthy New Yorkers are increasingly turning to hard bodies to protect them during European vacations, particularly in cities such as London, Paris and Berlin that have been hit with high-profile terrorism, say security experts.  “I can’t fill them fast enough,” said CASS Global Security founder Shawn Engbrecht of requests for vacation bodyguards.  Rich people are hiring bodyguards to go to Disney World.  I'm sure this will become a social requirement in certain circles.  What, he has no bodyguard?  How important could he possibly be?

HEY, SOME MORE GOOD NEWS – FROM THE NEW YORK POST:   For a city that seems to move at the speed of light, being late is never a good thing. That’s true for budget agreements, that’s true for commuter trains, and as it turns out, it’s probably true for earthquakes as well.  We tend to think of seismic activity as a west coast problem. Friday demonstrated all too well what a magnitude 8.2 earthquake can do to Mexico and Central America; many of us remember the World Series quake that rocked the San Francisco area in 1989. But New York, which is actually riddled with faults, has a long history of earthquakes: On average, the region has witnessed a moderate quake (about a 5.0 on the Richter scale) every hundred years. The last one was in 1884. Seismologists say we can expect the next one any day now.  Schedule it right after the next hurricane.

September 9,  2017     Permalink

THE CONFIDENT NATION – AT 2:58 P.M. ET:  America's economic confidence is growing.  This is all to the good, as an economy is built partly on psychology.  From Gallup: 

WASHINGTON, D.C. -- A new surge of optimism among U.S. investors has pushed the Wells Fargo/Gallup Investor and Retirement Optimism Index to its highest level since September 2000. The index, after rising in every quarter since the start of 2016, leveled off in the second quarter at +124 before rising to its current +138 in the third quarter.

The latest boost in optimism pushes the index almost 100 points higher than the +40 score measured in February 2016. The 98-point hike over the past 18 months is the largest increase in the 20-year history of the index that is not a rebound immediately after a major drop in optimism.

COMMENT:  Consumer Confidence, as measured by the Conference Board, is also up, creating a solid foundation for economic expansion and initiatives, like tax reform.

I think it's pretty clear that President Trump, despite his erratic behavior at times, has had a very positive effect on confidence, as he focused on growing the economy and bringing jobs back to America.  There's an old line, popularized by the 1992 Clinton campaign, "It's the economy, stupid."  It should be modified to read, "It's what people think about the economy."   The people are in a good place. 

Tax cut please.

September 9, 2017       Permalink

MOVING ON NORTH KOREA – AT 1:43 P.M. ET:  We're focused on the weather, but the North Korean threat is severe and present.

There is a legitimate concern that the Norks may try another missile launch this weekend, to coincide with the celebration of their country's founding.  We haven't been given any public information on whether we have a specific policy should the launch occur.  However, we will be at UN Monday with a tough proposal.  From, of all places, the left-wing Guardian:   

The US will embark on an aggressive effort to tighten North Korea’s isolation on Monday with a call for an oil embargo and a partial naval blockade.

A draft United Nations resolution seen by the Observer would also block textile exports and the hiring of North Korean labour by foreign countries. The American delegation has called for the UN security council to debate the draft, in an attempt to force decisive action following last Sunday’s massive nuclear test of a bomb, Pyongyang’s sixth.

The most striking language in the resolution authorises naval vessels of any UN member state to inspect North Korean ships suspected of carrying banned cargo and to use “all necessary measures to carry out such inspections”. The implications of such a resolution would be far-reaching. Any attempt to board or divert a North Korean vessel could trigger an exchange of fire.

As well as banning any exports of “crude oil, condensates, refined petroleum products, and natural gas liquids” to North Korea, the draft resolution calls for a prohibition on the import of textiles and an end to the hiring of North Korean nationals, on the grounds that the regime uses the foreign currency earned “to support its prohibited nuclear and ballistic missile programmes”.
Both Russia and China employ cheap North Korean labour. In Russia they work in logging camps and construction sites, helping build a new football stadium in St Petersburg that will be used in the World Cup next year.

The US draft measure would also freeze the assets of Kim Jong-un and the top leadership in Pyongyang.

It is highly doubtful that Russia or China would agree to all that, or even most of it.  The general feeling in diplomatic circles is that the U.S. would have to compromise severely to get any resolution through.  That may mean a nothingburger, having no effect in the real world.  However, there may be alternatives:

The Trump administration claims to have a “plan B” if the UN resolution fails. The president has threatened to cut off trade with any country that continues to do business with North Korea. And on Wednesday, the US treasury secretary, Steven Mnuchin, said documentation had been prepared to make that threat real if UN diplomacy failed.

COMMENT:  It reminds me of William Goldman's comment about Hollywood:  "Nobody knows anything."  We actually don't know what's in the minds of the North Korean leaders.  We speculate.  We calculate.  Some believe that the Norks just want to remain in power, and will do nothing that will jeopardize their political position.   Others argue that the regime, starting with Kim Jong-un at the top, is irrational and potentially genocidal, and must be attacked militarily and stripped of its nuclear weapons.

This is very dangerous, and an accident can happen.

September 9, 2017       Permalink

HURRICANE – AT 11:51 A.M. ET:  As we've said here, we're not weather reporters.  You'll do much better at the Weather Channel.

What I want to do regarding Hurricane Irma is examine the political and economic ramifications.

Thus far the political class in Florida, as in Texas with Hurricane Harvey, has been a remarkable success. As each day passes, the quality of the preparation and the organization remains impressive.  And President Trump is getting almost universally high grades for the way he's organized the federal government to respond to disaster.  Of course, there are some who blame him for the hurricanes, or who say that the weather is a Divine curse on Texas and Florida for voting Republican.  That's the Hollywood response.  They've just had one of their worst summers ever, and might consider trying to make a good movie now and then.

FEMA is an agency reborn.  It is providing solid service.  During Katrina, in Louisiana, it was ridiculed, although much of the ridicule was unfair. 

In the aftermath of the hurricanes we can expect to see an economic dip and a sharp rise in unemployment claims, almost all of the rise occurring in the states affected.  That will pass.  The president's approval rating, now at 46% in the Rasmussen Poll, will be sustained if Mr. Trump doesn't step all over himself.  The hurricane recovery can easily be a legitimate launching pad for his infrastructure program, which is critical and should gain widespread bipartisan support.  We may well see a national building program of unprecedented proportions, reminding us of President Eisenhower's national highway program in the 1950s.

Will the disasters, and the response to them, reset the Trump presidency?  I doubt if the overall aura will last long.  We are going into an intense political year, with Democrats knowing that they must make some progress in the 2018 midterms to be seen as a sustainable political party.   Republicans know that their "Republican" president, who has never actually been a party member, may turn against them if they don't produce. 

And North Korea looms.  There may well need to be military action.

September 9,  2017     Permalink

SEPTEMBER 8,  2017

SHORT TAKES ON THE DRIFTING WRECKAGE – AT 11:55 P.M. ET: 

A GENIUS SPEAKS – FROM FOX:   Oscar-winning actress Jennifer Lawrence suggested the devastating hurricanes in Texas and approaching Florida were signs of “Mother Nature’s rage and wrath” at America for electing Donald Trump and not believing in man-made climate change.  Lawrence, who is promoting her new drama “Mother!,” appeared on British network Channel 4 on Wednesday, where she discussed topics ranging from the movie to the gender pay gap and Trump.  “It’s scary,” the actress responded to the interviewer’s assertion that there was “an end-of-days feeling” across the world and especially in the U.S.  Well, that settles it.  The hurricane explained.  No need to look further.

GOOD FOR DOJ – FROM THE DAILY MAIL:   President Trump's administration has sided with a Christian baker who refused to make a gay couple's wedding cake because he claimed their marriage went against his religious beliefs.  Forcing Jack Phillips, the owner of Masterpiece Cakeshop in Denver, to bake a wedding cake for two men would be a violation of his constitutional rights, the Department of Justice declared on Thursday.  The baker is challenging a Colorado law that says  he was wrong to have turned away Charlie Craig and David Mullins, who wanted a cake to celebrate their nuptials in 2012.
Phillips refused because his religion does not support same-sex marriage and said he should not be compelled to bake a cake that would specifically honor that.  I side with the Department of Justice.  Requiring someone to create something, to write something, that violates that person's religious beliefs is a profound step in a democracy.  We have always tried to accommodate religious belief, within reason.  I think the baker's case is within reason. 

LET JUSTICE BE DONE – FROM DAILY CALLER:  Officers of the Dallas Police Department arrested Dominque Alexander on Thursday, the black activist that organized the 2016 anti-police protest in Dallas that left 12 officers shot and five dead.  Alexander faces charges of felony theft, stemming from a previous employer who claims the activist received payments between $2,500 and $30,000 from clients without transferring them to the company, the Dallas Observer reported. Alexander was thrust into the national spotlight in July 2016 after chaos erupted in Dallas during a Black Lives Matter anti-police protest when an angry protestor opened fire on police, killing five and wounding seven. Alexander’s Next Generation Action Network sponsored and helped organize the protest.  “I’m so beyond outraged. This is a bogus-ass charge. It’s ridiculous,” Alexander told the Observer. “This is a civil issue. If I owe this guy money, this is a civil issue.”  Alexander pleaded guilty in 2009 to causing serious bodily injury to a 2-year-old and was subsequently sentenced to probation, FOX 4 Dallas reported.  Another hustler who'll disgrace and mislead the very people he claims he's helping.

September 8, 2017       Permalink

YOU CANNOT MAKE IT UP – AT 11:50 A.M. ET:  Your tax dollars at work.  I hope the Trump administration starts looking into stuff like this.  From the Washington Free Beacon: 

The National Science Foundation is spending over $130,000 on a study that asks four-year-olds about their "internal sense of gender identity."

A grant for a two-year study was awarded to the University of Washington this summer. The project will interview 250 children aged four to six, and their parents, asking a series of questions about "gendered behavior."

"Prominent theories of gender development have discussed the degree to which gender identity results from an internal sense of gender and socialization processes," according to the grant.

"However, tests of these theories have been limited because, for most children, internal gender identity and environmental socialization substantially overlap, rendering it impossible to distinguish the relative impact of each factor on gender development."

COMMENT:  The National Science Foundation is a government agency that finances studies in the non-medical sciences.  This sounds very medical to me.  It also sounds like something that's more about politics than science.  Very much an Obama effect.

I could be wrong, but, from what I've seen, I think I'm right.

September 8, 2017       Permalink

TRUMP RISES AGAIN – AT 9:47 A.M. ET:   Rasmussen shows still one more uptick in the president's approval rating: 

The Rasmussen Reports daily Presidential Tracking Poll for Friday shows that 46% of Likely U.S. Voters approve of President Trump’s job performance. Fifty-three percent (53%) disapprove.

This is the president’s highest job approval rating since late June.

The latest figures include 29% who Strongly Approve of the way Trump is performing and 45% who Strongly Disapprove. This gives him a Presidential Approval Index rating of -16.

COMMENT:  True, it's one poll, and others will show different numbers.  But Rasmussen was particularly accurate in calling the election, and runs an excellent daily tracker.

The rising numbers will allow Trump to do what we discussed in the post just below.  He is gaining political strength...and independence.  And he is getting rave reviews over his handling of the hurricane crisis.

It can change, but, for now, he's sailing.

September 8, 2017       Permalink

CHANGE? – AT 9:28 A.M. ET:  There's major yapping about President Trump's decision to join with Chuck Schumer and Nancy Pelosi in extending the debt limit only three months, rather than the longer period wanted by GOP leaders.

Is this important?  Is Trump throwing the GOP leadership under the bus he has parked outside the White House?  Or is it just a temporary fix?

On the one hand, we can argue that it is a temporary agreement.  It gets the debt extension off the table during the vital period from now until almost the end of the year, allowing for the president's priority, tax reform, to be taken up.  I believe that's what will happen.

But...on the other hand, this could be a major political move, and I think it is.  For some time I've believed that Trump wants to start his own political movement, maybe even his own party.  This may be the opening gun.  After all, he was never a Republican, never even a card-carrying member.  His presidential run was opposed by most of the GOP establishment.  They don't particularly like him.  Moving toward becoming an "independent Republican" would allow Trump to hold a huge club over the GOP.  Work with him and they will have his support.  Oppose him, or do nothing, and he will work with whomever is available to get things done.  I believe Trump has calculated that the GOP needs him more than he needs the GOP.

And he may be right.

It's just a thought, but I would not be shocked to see Trump becoming more independent as we approach the 2018 midterms, and making Republicans work for his endorsement.

And he might even be able to neutralize the more rational parts of the Democratic Party.

Great politics.

September 8, 2017    Permalink